By Rick Slark, Fractional Strategist
The Case of the Disappearing Lunch Crowd
Peek into any office cafeteria at noon, and you might notice something odd – it’s quieter than it used to be. Despite more employees returning to the office in 2024, Americans bought only 19.5 billion restaurant lunches that year, down 3% from 2023. In fact, fewer lunches were purchased in 2024 than even during 2020’s work-from-home height of the pandemic. Where did everyone go? It turns out many are ditching the deli line and brown-bagging it instead. Food purchases from grocery stores intended for at-home or packed lunches inched up by 1% in 2024, signaling a shift toward DIY dining at noon. The once-bustling midday rush at sandwich shops and salad bars has given way to a quieter scene – more microwaved leftovers and homemade sandwiches, fewer swipe-of-the-card deli runs.
From Power Lunch to Packed Lunch
This lunchroom retreat isn’t just a quirky habit; it reflects broader consumer behavior and workplace culture currents. For restaurants that counted on the back-to-office boom, the shift is a gut punch. Lunchtime foot traffic at fast-casual eateries dropped 7.9% year-over-year in early 2025, and even fast-food joints saw traffic fall about 4.2% in that period. In other words, the office crowd isn’t flooding back to Chipotle or Subway as hoped. The “power lunch” of yesteryear – think client meetings over bistro salads – has increasingly been replaced by the packed lunch enjoyed solo or with a couple of coworkers in the break room. It’s a cultural shift: employees still value social time, but many now bond over a walk or a coffee rather than a pricy lunch.
Workplace culture is adapting to this new normal. During the pandemic, workers got used to cooking at home and avoiding crowds; now, even in-office days often maintain those frugal, self-reliant habits. Plus, with hybrid schedules, fewer people are in the office daily, thinning out the potential lunch crowd. Offices that once emptied at noon as everyone dashed to the nearest café now see more people staying in, trading restaurant menus for reheated homemade soup. The vibe has shifted from the bustling lunch rush to a quieter, more subdued break room scene – a subtle sign that things haven’t fully returned to the free-spending “old normal.”
Brown Bags and Economic Red Flags
What’s driving this brown-bag renaissance? In a word: economics. Many workers say lunches out have just gotten too expensive, and they’re not wrong. Hybrid office employees spent an average of $21 on lunch in 2024, up from about $16 in 2023. That’s a hefty 30% jump in just a year – a reflection of inflation and perhaps a taste for more premium meals on the days people do buy lunch. Sticker shock at the sandwich counter is real. Paying over $20 for a burrito bowl and drink can make even a steady paycheck feel a pinch, especially when you multiply it by multiple days per week. No wonder thrifty employees are eyeing those leftovers in the fridge or making PB&J instead.
For companies, this trend is a mixed bag. On the one hand, employees saving money on lunch might put less strain on their finances (which could mean less pressure for raises). On the other hand, the decline in lunch outings is “a threat to already-struggling delis, cafés and other office-area eateries” that barely survived 2020. Those corner restaurants counted on a post-pandemic rebound that, so far, hasn’t fully materialized. In economic terms, consumers exhibit price sensitivity: when costs go up, they pull back. Lunch is a discretionary expense that’s easy to cut when belts need tightening. It’s an everyday example of how consumer behavior adjusts in leaner times – a small red flag that people are cautious about spending.
The Lunchbox as a Crystal Ball
Can your lunch habits really foretell the economy’s direction? It might sound far-fetched, but economists and strategists often look at quirky indicators like these to get a read on consumer confidence. In the past, we’ve heard of the “Lipstick Index,” a theory that lipstick sales soar in recessions as consumers seek affordable little luxuries. There’s even a men’s “Underwear Index” – popularized by former Fed chair Alan Greenspan – which notes that men delay buying new underwear during downturns (since no one sees it, they make do with old pairs). Strange as they sound, such indicators highlight shifts in behavior when wallets tighten.
In that quirky tradition, consider the “Brown-Bag Lunch Index.” When workers en masse start bringing turkey on rye from home instead of splurging on sushi bowls, it signals anxiety about disposable income. It’s a sign people are bracing for tough times or reacting to higher prices in the moment. The humble lunchbox thus becomes a crystal ball of sorts – reflecting both economic undercurrents and evolving lifestyles. Are people cutting back on small daily indulgences? That could hint at expectations (or realities) of a cooling economy. After all, skipping the $15 salad today might be a prelude to postponing bigger purchases tomorrow.
What makes the lunch indicator particularly interesting is how it ties economic sentiment to workplace dynamics. During the fully remote days, nobody was buying lunch out. As offices repopulated, one might expect lunch outings to roar back – if everything were rosy financially. The fact that they haven’t (even trailing 2020 levels) suggests that the return-to-office bump has been overshadowed by consumer caution. People are choosing savings over convenience, community, or even taste. That choice can speak volumes about confidence in personal finances and, by extension, the broader economy.
Lunch Resolutions and Looking Ahead
If you need further proof that the era of BYO lunches is a bona fide movement, look at New Year’s resolutions. In a recent LinkedIn poll, 71% of about 4,250 respondents said they resolved to bring their lunch to work more often in 2025 (yes, even social-media-savvy professionals are proudly pledging allegiance to the brown bag!). This collective resolve isn’t just about saving a few bucks – it reflects a mindset shift. After years of economic uncertainty – from pandemic disruptions to inflation – consumers are developing frugal habits and mindful spending routines. Bringing lunch is a small act of control in uncertain times: you control what you spend, what you eat, and you’re less at the mercy of the $13 avocado toast.
For strategists and businesses, these subtle shifts are worth watching. The lunch trend hints at price fatigue – folks are tapped out on paying premium prices for everyday needs. It also hints at changing workplace culture – perhaps companies might respond with perks like subsidized lunches or more “free pizza Fridays” to lure people back on site (in fact, free food ranks high as an incentive to get workers in-office). Moreover, a decline in lunch spending could precede or accompany slowdowns in other discretionary areas: if workers won’t spring for a Panera sandwich, will they delay buying new gadgets or clothes next? Consumer psychology often ripples outward from small decisions to bigger ones.
In the grand buffet of economic indicators, the humble homemade lunch is an unlikely entrée – but an illuminating one. It combines elements of consumer confidence, inflationary pressure, and lifestyle change in each bite. So the next time you open that packed lunch, know that you’re part of a quiet, quirky economic signal. The brown-bag lunch revival tells a larger story about a workforce and a consumer base that is savvy, cost-conscious, and adapting to the times. In an economy sending mixed signals (strong job market here, recession fears there), perhaps the best place to gauge the mood is not the stock ticker or the Fed minutes, but the office fridge at 12:30 pm. Your turkey sandwich might just be saying more about the state of the world than you realize.
Sources
- Circana data on U.S. lunch purchases (2024)
- Grocery purchase trends and brown-bag behavior (2024)
- Hybrid worker lunch spending averages – Owl Labs report (2024)
- Lunchtime foot traffic data – Black Box Intelligence (Q1 2025)
- LinkedIn poll on employee lunch habits (2025)
- References to the Lipstick Index and Men’s Underwear Index (various public economic commentary)